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How does luck work in football betting

Football Betting: Luck, Money and More

Betting on football is not something new. It has been going on for several years and the trend is likely to continue for many years to come. We are here to talk about the role of luck and the importance of money in football gambling and how these things can affect the outcomes of this kind of sports betting.

Luck is something every sports bettor craves for, some even get it, but there are only a few who sustain it.

How Does Luck Work In Football Betting?

Luck naturally plays a very big role in the game of football. When we talk about luck, we talk about the luck of everyone who is involved in the game, including the players, the team, and the bettors. There is a term in sports betting called the ‘Beginner’s luck’, which refers to new bettors winning their initial bets. However, sustaining that luck is something not many gamblers are expert in.

The major reason behind this problem is that the players get excited after winning a few bets and start feeling more optimistic and usually end up making a bad bet. There is only so long your luck can help you if you are not helping yourself.

But what if there was a way to get a better control of your gambling luck? What if luck never leaves your side in a game to make sure that you win most of your bets? Is it actually possible, and if yes, then how? Let’s find out.

How to beat the luck?

All the luck and skills of football betting come down to this one simple statement: The probabilities of all outcomes in a football game sum up to one. This strategy is used by all professional bookies to determine the winning probabilities and thus the odds of teams in a particular game. By successfully learning this, you can actually be able to calculate the probabilities of various events occurring in a game.

Let’s understand this with an example. In a football match, there are three possible outcomes – Home Win, Away Win, or a Draw. By the probability rule, the total of all three probabilities should be 1. If other factors like the team strength and experience, field condition, weather, etc., are ignored, the probability of each of the three outcomes would be exactly ⅓ or 0.33 or 33%, in an ideal condition. And the odds would be 100/33 = 3, on every outcome.

The following three things have the major impact on the odds.

Of course, there are factors that affect these odds. The bookmakers consider all these things, as best they can, in addition to the normal probabilities to figure out the odds of a particular result in a football game. This is why, strong and famous teams are assigned low odds as they have higher winning probability. However, there is no possible way to 100% determine the outcome of a game, no matter the probability.

The second thing is that there is no such thing as a perfect team. Even if you read somewhere that a particular football team has never lost a match against another particular team, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they have won every single match. There may have been some draw results between the two teams. So, a bettor also needs to consider the Draw possibility before choosing a team to bet on.

The third and the most important thing is that the odds/probability shown by a bookmaker will not usually sum up to 1. For example, in a match between two football teams, the bookmaker assigns the following odds:

Team A win – 2.3 (favourite/home team) odds – 100/2.3 = 43.4 probability

Team B win – 3.1 odds – 100/3.1 = 32.25 probability

Draw – 3 odds – 100/3 = 33.33 probability

Now, if you add the probabilities, it won’t sum up to 100% (it is 108.98). It is not supposed to be. The added 8.98% is the bookmaker’s commission here. You can call it the fee they charge for the service they provide to you. This is an important factor to consider while calculating the odds in a particular football match.

If you know and understand these things properly, you can actually beat the luck to win most of your games.

Here are some tips to help you overcome the above-mentioned problems.

  • Follow the statement of the total probability of all the outcomes being one.
  • Develop an algorithm based on the correct data and mathematical numbers (and not as suggested by the bookmakers or media).
  • Do not get influenced by the betting trades.

Make sure to give your luck a chance and keep control of your wits when betting on football.

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